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Here is a 2-page summary of the article "The untold story of Bolsonaro's weird and wild coup attempt" from The Economist:

Page 1

The article investigates Jair Bolsonaro's attempts to subvert Brazil's democracy, culminating in the January 8th, 2023 insurrection. It starts by describing how, after losing the October 2022 election to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ("Lula"), Bolsonaro refused to concede. His supporters, feeling restless, gathered in camps, eventually numbering over 5,000, and the situation escalated into an attempted insurrection.

On January 8th, thousands of protestors, wearing the national football team's jerseys, marched on Brasília, vandalizing Congress, the presidential palace, and the Federal Supreme Court. Bolsonaro issued a mild rebuke only after police dispersed the insurgents. The article reveals that this insurrection was the culmination of a long-term effort by Bolsonaro and his allies to discredit Brazil's electoral system, pressure military commanders to annul the election, and even plot to assassinate rivals.

The article notes Bolsonaro and several associates will stand trial on charges of orchestrating a coup, potentially facing lengthy prison sentences. It highlights a growing tension between politicians and the Supreme Court, which has been trying to prevent a return to autocracy.

The article also discusses Bolsonaro's background, noting his admiration for the generals of Brazil's former military dictatorship. During his time in Congress, Bolsonaro was largely dismissed until the "Operation Car Wash" corruption scandal created an opportunity for his anti-establishment message.

Sensing an opportunity, Bolsonaro ran for president in 2018. He and his allies understood the power of social media, which they used to spread disinformation. Bolsonaro won the election and aligned himself with Donald Trump, sharing similar political views and tactics.

Page 2

The article details the tensions between Bolsonaro and Brazil's Supreme Court, particularly Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who led an inquiry into online disinformation. Online threats against the court multiplied after Bolsonaro was elected, and Moraes faced personal threats.

The court waded deeper into politics in 2019, ruling that defendants could not be imprisoned until all appeals were exhausted, allowing Lula to be released from jail. Bolsonaro became convinced the court was conspiring against him and interfered with police investigations into his sons.

The article notes that American officials were alarmed by Bolsonaro's rhetoric and actions. The CIA director and Biden's national-security chief met with Bolsonaro and his advisors, but their visits were unsuccessful. Bolsonaro continued to spread disinformation about voting machines, even after being warned by American officials.

The article recounts a series of events following the election, including police stopping buses carrying voters, and supporters blocking highways. Bolsonaro's associates discussed extreme measures, including a plot to assassinate Justice Moraes and Lula. This plan involved recruiting elite soldiers and obtaining weapons and cash.

The assassination plot was ultimately unsuccessful. Bolsonaro left Brazil for Florida before Lula's inauguration. In the aftermath, evidence emerged of Bolsonaro's involvement in a spy ring targeting journalists and other critics. He now faces multiple judicial investigations and has been barred from holding office for eight years. Bolsonaro's lawyers deny his involvement in the coup attempts and accuse the federal police and Moraes of bias.

The article concludes by noting that Bolsonaro's allies are focused on winning enough senate seats in the next election to impeach Moraes and weaken the courts, potentially allowing Bolsonaro to achieve his aims without holding office himself. The article highlights the fragility of democracy and the dangers posed by democratically elected leaders who undermine democratic institutions.

PERPLEXITY

Jair Bolsonaro’s attempted coup in Brazil began long before the January 8, 2023 insurrection, with a coordinated campaign to undermine democracy and electoral legitimacy. After narrowly losing the presidential election to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in October 2022, Bolsonaro refused to concede, rallied supporters, and fostered conspiracy theories about electoral fraud—all culminating in violence, legal peril, and deep institutional confrontations.

Coup Plot Origins

Bolsonaro’s skepticism of democracy traces back to his military-era upbringing, openly admiring generals who ruled Brazil until 1985. After his army career ended in scandal, he spent decades in Congress as a marginal figure until the “Operation Car Wash” corruption scandal propelled him into presidential prominence in 2018. Aligning himself with anti-establishment sentiment, Bolsonaro employed social media manipulation and misinformation—often orchestrated by his son Carlos’s “hate cabinet”—to smear opponents and rally support.

Polarization and Supreme Court Conflict

From early in his presidency, Bolsonaro clashed with Brazil’s powerful Supreme Court, especially over online disinformation. The “fake news inquiry,” led by Justice Alexandre de Moraes, became a flashpoint, as police began investigating Bolsonaro’s circle. Legal scholars warned about the inquiry’s unprecedented remit, and the court’s intervention in political matters intensified polarization. For instance, the court’s 2019 ruling freeing Lula from jail was seen by Bolsonaro and allies as a personal attack, deepening mistrust.

Military and Foreign Influence

Bolsonaro’s efforts to bring the military into his orbit faced resistance. He purged dissident cabinet members and tried to recruit the armed forces to challenge court authority, resulting in high-profile resignations. The United States monitored developments closely, recognizing the destabilizing parallels with its own January 6 insurrection. CIA and senior US officials attempted to warn Bolsonaro against autocratic escalation, but he remained convinced of a communist conspiracy and intensively spread doubt about electronic voting machines.

Escalating Tactics and Election Manipulation

As Lula surged in polls, Bolsonaro’s administration sought to undermine the upcoming election. Intelligence officials mapped out pro-Lula regions; police then intercepted buses of Lula supporters heading to vote. The Supreme Court intervened to end suppression. Bolsonaro’s camp then orchestrated mass protests, blockades, and direct messaging to military leaders urging intervention.

Assassination Plot and Martial Law

Police uncovered “Operation Green and Yellow Dagger”—a plan by Bolsonaro’s inner circle to assassinate Chief Justice Moraes, Lula, and Vice President Alckmin, in concert with a martial-law decree. Hitmen (“kids pretos”) surveilled targets and prepared for attacks; the plot was aborted largely due to lack of military backing and limited social unrest. Bolsonaro attempted to recruit top brass, but Army Chief Gomes steadfastly refused to subvert the constitutional order, enduring intimidation from fellow officers.

Aftermath and Legal Reckoning

Defeated, Bolsonaro retreated to Florida after refusing to attend Lula’s inauguration, as judicial investigations intensified. Authorities uncovered a spy ring targeting journalists and political adversaries. Meanwhile, former right-hand man Mauro Cid entered a plea deal, providing mixed testimony about the coup attempt and assassination plans. In June 2023, Bolsonaro was barred from office for eight years for election interference, and he faces trial—alongside other close associates—with potential decades-long prison sentences.

International Fallout and Future Outlook

Bolsonaro’s allies—especially his son Eduardo—appealed to the revived MAGA movement and Trump administration for support. US officials-imposed sanctions, revoked visas, and levied tariffs against Brazilian judiciary officials, citing politicized prosecutions. Brazil approaches the 2026 general election amid mounting polarization and threats of further institutional sabotage by antiliberal forces.

Democratic Resilience and Court Power

The Supreme Court’s assertiveness, even as some see its powers as excessive—was a bulwark against Bolsonaro’s attempted usurpation. Yet the legacy is institutional tension and the risk of gradual, legally cloaked democratic erosion, as seen in other countries where charismatic leaders weaponized their mandates to undermine courts and opposition.

Key Takeaways

• Bolsonaro orchestrated a multi-pronged attempt to overturn Brazil’s democracy, involving misinformation, military pressure, and an aborted assassination plot.

• The Supreme Court played a pivotal role in protecting democratic norms, though its extraordinary reach is now a source of controversy.

• International actors—especially Trump’s US—have amplified Brazil’s internal strife, with retaliatory sanctions and rhetorical support for Bolsonaro’s camp.

• Brazil faces continued threats of polarization and institutional stress ahead of new elections, with Bolsonaro’s influence lingering through allies seeking to weaken the judiciary.